Hellenic Business

Early exit polls appear to give the Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili a popular victory in Georgia's parliamentary election, though he may fail to become prime minister.

Two polls on Monday put Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream opposition coalition ahead of Mikheil Saakashvili's ruling United National Movement (UNM) party. Imedi TV said Ivanishvili had won 51% of the vote compared with 41% for UNM, with 35% of people refusing to reveal how they had voted.

The Georgian public broadcaster gave 35% to Georgian Dream, with 32% to the UNM and 30% refusing to say. Georgian Dream's own pollster reported an overwhelming lead, with 62% against the UNM's 28%.

The result – if confirmed – would be a devastating defeat for President Saakashvili, who swept to power in the so-called rose revolution of 2003 but who has faced growing accusations after eight years in power of authoritarian behaviour.

Ivanishvili (@B_Ivanishvili) last night claimed his party had decisively won the poll, tweeting: "The people of Georgia need to react to our victory calmly and remember that those who voted for the UNM are our brothers."

In parts of the capital, Tbilisi, which is an opposition stronghold, many people poured on to the streets to celebrate, with cars honking.

But Georgia's electoral system may yet deprive Ivanishvili of victory. The exit polls apply to only 77 seats in the new parliament, distributed on a party-list basis; the remaining 73 are constituency seats, where Saakashvili's party has a strong inbuilt advantage.

One senior Georgian government source conceded Saakashvili had lost the popular vote but said it was still possible the UNM would emerge with a "slim majority". They said Saakashvili's apparent defeat in a largely fair election showed that the opposition charge he had turned into a despot was clearly wrong.

Saakashvili is due to continue as president until January 2013. If Ivanisvhili does win a parliamentary majority, and becomes prime minister, it is difficult to see how the two men could work together.

The campaign has featured vituperative statements from both sides, with Ivanishvili hinting in an interview with the Guardian on Sunday that the president was willing to do anything to stop him.

Ivanishvili's aides have indicated that they now expect Saakashvili to resign after what the said was his overwhelming defeat.

If Saakashvili carries on, and his party remains in power despite losing the popular vote, Georgia could be entering a period of turmoil or possibly worse.

The Guardian